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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Arouca 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Arouca 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.92 xG and Sporting CP 2.31 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.86 / defence 1.29 against Sporting CP attack 1.39 / defence 0.76, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 13% | Draw 18% | Sporting CP 69%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 52%, Sporting CP 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sporting CP's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights