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Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 1.16 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Santa Clara attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 32% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 39%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 46%, Santa Clara 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Santa Clara's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights