Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 14

Kick-off

Sun 15 Dec 2024

15:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

32%

Arouca

3.16

29%

Draw

3.42

39%

Santa Clara

2.56

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

13.2%

Away win

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.01

Arouca xG

Total xG

2.17

1.16

Santa Clara xG

32%
29%
39%
AroucaDrawSanta Clara

3.16

32%

Home win

3.42

29%

Draw

2.56

39%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

37%

Over 2.5

2.70

63%

Under 2.5

1.59

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.29

56%

BTTS No

1.78

Clean Sheet

31%

Arouca

3.19

36%

Santa Clara

2.76

Win to Nil

10%

Arouca

10.09

14%

Santa Clara

7.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.4 13.2 7.7 3.0 0.9 0.2
1 11.5 13.4 7.8 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 5.8 6.8 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1
4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.014
λ Away (xG) 1.161
Total xG 2.175
League avg home goals 1.405
League avg away goals 1.086
Arouca attack strength 0.756
Arouca defence strength 1.175
Santa Clara attack strength 0.910
Santa Clara defence strength 0.954
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 47 / 13