Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santa Clara at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arouca vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arouca stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Arouca are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Arouca than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Santa Clara's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Arouca's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Arouca, 1 for Santa Clara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Arouca in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Arouca 38% | Santa Clara 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Arouca 46% | Santa Clara 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.756 / defence 1.175 | Santa Clara attack 0.910 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.086. Arouca's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Arouca games / 13 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 32% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 39%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Santa Clara 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 50% | Santa Clara 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 32% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Arouca 1.01 / Santa Clara 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.756 / def 1.175 | Santa Clara attack 0.910 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Santa Clara xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Santa Clara kick off?
Arouca vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Arouca 1 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Arouca vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Santa Clara part of?
Arouca vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 32% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arouca and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
Record (4 meetings): Arouca 2W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in?
Arouca (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arouca's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
32%
3.16
29%
3.42
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.17
1.16
Santa Clara xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Arouca and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Arouca and 1.16 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 2W 2D 9L from 13 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 9W 0D 4L across 13 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Santa Clara by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 3W 0D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.23 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Santa Clara in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 9W 0D 4L in their last 13 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Santa Clara away?
Santa Clara's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 0.67 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Arouca or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Arouca's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Arouca
3
Draws
3
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
From 9 meetings on record, Arouca have won 3, Santa Clara have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Arouca 33% BTTS, Santa Clara 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Arouca and 33% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara in 33%; Arouca have failed to score in 50% of games; Santa Clara in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Arouca's recent matches and 33% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Arouca's recent games and 33% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 1.16 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Santa Clara attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 32% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 39%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 46%, Santa Clara 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Santa Clara's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.