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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca and Rio Ave share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 21, as Arouca and Rio Ave drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.15 xG and Rio Ave 0.87 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.77 / defence 0.92 against Rio Ave attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 42% | Draw 32% | Rio Ave 27%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 59%, Rio Ave 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.26 PPG, Rio Ave 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights