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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 16, as Arouca and GIL Vicente drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.73 xG and GIL Vicente 1.49 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against GIL Vicente attack 0.90 / defence 0.70, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 18% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 55%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 51%, GIL Vicente 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.04 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights