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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 28 Dec 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

GIL Vicente Win

18%

Arouca

5.45

26%

Draw

3.80

55%

GIL Vicente

1.81

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

16.2%

Away win

Most likely

0 – 2

12.0%

Away win

1 – 1

11.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.73

Arouca xG

Total xG

2.22

1.49

GIL Vicente xG

18%
26%
55%
AroucaDrawGIL Vicente

5.45

18%

Home win

3.80

26%

Draw

1.81

55%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.49

60%

BTTS No

1.67

Clean Sheet

23%

Arouca

4.42

48%

GIL Vicente

2.08

Win to Nil

4%

Arouca

24.09

27%

GIL Vicente

3.76

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.9 16.2 12.0 6.0 2.2 0.7
1 8.0 11.8 8.8 4.4 1.6 0.5
2 2.9 4.3 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2
3 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1
4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
5

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.731
λ Away (xG) 1.487
Total xG 2.218
League avg home goals 1.363
League avg away goals 1.294
Arouca attack strength 0.765
Arouca defence strength 1.278
GIL Vicente attack strength 0.899
GIL Vicente defence strength 0.701
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49