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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Arouca 0-4 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.95 xG and FC Porto 1.90 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC Porto outscored their 1.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against FC Porto attack 1.34 / defence 0.70, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 18% | Draw 23% | FC Porto 59%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 50%, FC Porto 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights