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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Mon 29 Sep 2025

20:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

18%

Arouca

5.55

23%

Draw

4.36

59%

FC Porto

1.69

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

Most likely

0 – 2

10.4%

Away win

1 – 1

10.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.95

Arouca xG

Total xG

2.86

1.90

FC Porto xG

18%
23%
59%
AroucaDrawFC Porto

5.55

18%

Home win

4.36

23%

Draw

1.69

59%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.89

47%

BTTS No

2.12

Clean Sheet

15%

Arouca

6.69

38%

FC Porto

2.60

Win to Nil

3%

Arouca

37.14

23%

FC Porto

4.40

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.7 10.9 10.4 6.6 3.1 1.2
1 5.5 10.4 9.9 6.3 3.0 1.1
2 2.6 5.0 4.7 3.0 1.4 0.5
3 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2
4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.955
λ Away (xG) 1.901
Total xG 2.856
League avg home goals 1.274
League avg away goals 1.172
Arouca attack strength 1.067
Arouca defence strength 1.213
FC Porto attack strength 1.337
FC Porto defence strength 0.702
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40