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FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Arouca 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.20 xG and FC Porto 1.40 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against FC Porto attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 31% | Draw 29% | FC Porto 40%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 60%, FC Porto 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Porto (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights