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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sat 1 Mar 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

31%

Arouca

3.23

29%

Draw

3.50

40%

FC Porto

2.47

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.4%

Away win

1 – 0

8.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.20

Arouca xG

Total xG

2.60

1.40

FC Porto xG

31%
29%
40%
AroucaDrawFC Porto

3.23

31%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

2.47

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.85

46%

BTTS No

2.17

Clean Sheet

25%

Arouca

4.07

30%

FC Porto

3.32

Win to Nil

8%

Arouca

13.15

12%

FC Porto

8.20

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4 10.4 7.3 3.4 1.2 0.3
1 8.9 12.5 8.7 4.1 1.4 0.4
2 5.3 7.5 5.2 2.5 0.9 0.2
3 2.1 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.200
λ Away (xG) 1.404
Total xG 2.604
League avg home goals 1.364
League avg away goals 1.146
Arouca attack strength 0.865
Arouca defence strength 1.066
FC Porto attack strength 1.150
FC Porto defence strength 1.018
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57