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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca and Farense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca and Farense finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.01 xG and Farense 0.85 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Farense outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Farense attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 38% | Draw 33% | Farense 29%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 59%, Farense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Farense's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.25 PPG, Farense 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Farense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights