Arouca vs Famalicao – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Arouca at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arouca vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to to face Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 7W 1D 2L at — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Famalicao (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Arouca. A 0.70 PPG lead over Famalicao (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 4W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 53% versus Famalicao 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 66% | Famalicao 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.62 xG and Famalicao 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.350 / defence 0.902 | Famalicao attack 0.792 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Arouca carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Arouca games / 38 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 54% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 21%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Famalicao 4.76. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arouca 70% | Famalicao 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 54% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Arouca 1.62 / Famalicao 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.350 / def 0.902 | Famalicao attack 0.792 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Arouca (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Famalicao xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Famalicao kick off?
Arouca vs Famalicao is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027.
What competition is Arouca vs Famalicao part of?
Arouca vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 54% chance of winning, Famalicao a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Arouca and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Famalicao?
Record (10 meetings): Arouca 4W | Draws 3 | Famalicao 3W.
What form are Arouca and Famalicao in?
Arouca (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 1.35x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.79x) against Arouca's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.03
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.52
0.90
Famalicao xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
24.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Arouca and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Arouca and 0.90 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 15W 6D 17L from 38 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 10L across 38 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Arouca against 1.53 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 6W 8D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.16 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Early Season
Famalicao
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 15W 6D 17L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 15W 13D 10L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Famalicao away?
Arouca's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.63 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Arouca or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Famalicao in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
3
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, Famalicao have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Famalicao?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 58%, Famalicao 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Arouca) and 26% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Famalicao in 37%; Famalicao in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Arouca's recent matches and 37% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Arouca's recent games and 26% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Famalicao tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.