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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca and Famalicao finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.13 xG and Famalicao 1.50 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.97 / defence 1.37 against Famalicao attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 28% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 45%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 51%, Famalicao 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Famalicao's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.12 PPG, Famalicao 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights