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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Famalicao Win

28%

Arouca

3.56

27%

Draw

3.77

45%

Famalicao

2.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.2%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.8%

Away win

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.13

Arouca xG

Total xG

2.63

1.50

Famalicao xG

28%
27%
45%
AroucaDrawFamalicao

3.56

28%

Home win

3.77

27%

Draw

2.20

45%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.89

47%

BTTS No

2.13

Clean Sheet

22%

Arouca

4.50

32%

Famalicao

3.09

Win to Nil

6%

Arouca

16.01

15%

Famalicao

6.81

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 10.8 8.1 4.1 1.5 0.5
1 8.1 12.2 9.2 4.6 1.7 0.5
2 4.6 6.9 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.3
3 1.7 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.129
λ Away (xG) 1.503
Total xG 2.632
League avg home goals 1.311
League avg away goals 1.227
Arouca attack strength 0.972
Arouca defence strength 1.367
Famalicao attack strength 0.896
Famalicao defence strength 0.885
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41