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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Sat 5 Apr 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Famalicao Win

34%

Arouca

2.93

27%

Draw

3.68

39%

Famalicao

2.58

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

1 – 0

10.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.19

Arouca xG

Total xG

2.46

1.28

Famalicao xG

34%
27%
39%
AroucaDrawFamalicao

2.93

34%

Home win

3.68

27%

Draw

2.58

39%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.00

50%

BTTS No

2.00

Clean Sheet

28%

Arouca

3.60

31%

Famalicao

3.27

Win to Nil

9%

Arouca

10.54

12%

Famalicao

8.45

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.5 10.9 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.2
1 10.1 12.9 8.3 3.5 1.1 0.3
2 6.0 7.6 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
3 2.4 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.185
λ Away (xG) 1.280
Total xG 2.465
League avg home goals 1.352
League avg away goals 1.175
Arouca attack strength 0.795
Arouca defence strength 1.022
Famalicao attack strength 1.066
Famalicao defence strength 1.102
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 61