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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Estrela 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Estrela 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 2.04 xG and Estrela 1.15 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arouca fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Estrela landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.14 / defence 1.23 against Estrela attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 58% | Draw 21% | Estrela 21%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 56%, Estrela 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Estrela's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.11 PPG, Estrela 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights