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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Estrela 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Estrela 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.95 xG and Estrela 0.85 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estrela landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Estrela attack 0.67 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 36% | Draw 33% | Estrela 31%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 59%, Estrela 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Estrela's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.21 PPG, Estrela 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights