🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Estoril 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Estoril 3-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.75 xG and Estoril 1.65 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Estoril attack 1.19 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 41% | Draw 23% | Estoril 37%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 56%, Estoril 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Estoril's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.10 PPG, Estoril 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights