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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca and Estoril share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca and Estoril finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.37 xG and Estoril 1.59 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Estoril attack 1.27 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 33% | Draw 24% | Estoril 43%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 58%, Estoril 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Estoril's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.25 PPG, Estoril 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights