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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arouca run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Boavista.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Boavista 4-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.97 xG and Boavista 0.99 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.74 / defence 0.92 against Boavista attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 34% | Draw 31% | Boavista 35%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 55%, Boavista 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Boavista's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.21 PPG, Boavista 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Boavista (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights