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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat AVS 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.56 xG and AVS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against AVS attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 50% | Draw 25% | AVS 25%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 47%, AVS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

AVS's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.12 PPG, AVS 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. AVS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights