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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Alverca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Alverca 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.05 xG and Alverca 1.75 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alverca landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.76 / defence 1.40 against Alverca attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 22% | Draw 25% | Alverca 53%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Arouca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 69%, Alverca 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Alverca's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Alverca arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights