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Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Alverca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Alverca 0-3 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.03 xG and SC Braga 1.36 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Alverca fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SC Braga outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against SC Braga attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 28% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 44%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 100%, SC Braga 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Alverca managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.