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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alverca and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 23, as Alverca and Santa Clara drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.06 xG and Santa Clara 1.02 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Santa Clara attack 0.76 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 36% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 34%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 54%, Santa Clara 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Santa Clara's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 1.14 PPG, Santa Clara 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights