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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alverca and Rio Ave share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 11, as Alverca and Rio Ave drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.04 xG and Rio Ave 1.76 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Rio Ave attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 21% | Draw 26% | Rio Ave 53%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 70%, Rio Ave 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 1.00 PPG, Rio Ave 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights