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Shock result as Alverca defy the odds to beat Nacional 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Nacional 1-0 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.81 xG and Nacional 1.35 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nacional landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Nacional attack 0.84 / defence 0.79, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 22% | Draw 29% | Nacional 49%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Alverca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 58%, Nacional 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Nacional's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 1.17 PPG, Nacional 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights