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Alverca cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Guimaraes 2-0 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.93 xG and Guimaraes 1.32 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Alverca beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guimaraes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.19 against Guimaraes attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 26% | Draw 29% | Guimaraes 45%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Alverca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 83%, Guimaraes 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Guimaraes's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Alverca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights