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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant GIL Vicente run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Alverca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Alverca 0-4 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.88 xG and GIL Vicente 1.22 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Alverca fell 0.9 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against GIL Vicente attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 25% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 42%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 75%, GIL Vicente 12%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights