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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Alverca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Alverca 0-3 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.68 xG and FC Porto 1.77 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Porto outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against FC Porto attack 1.29 / defence 0.63, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 14% | Draw 23% | FC Porto 64%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 50%, FC Porto 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.86 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights