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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Mon 22 Dec 2025

18:45

Venue

FC Alverca Sports Complex

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

14%

Alverca

7.29

23%

Draw

4.40

64%

FC Porto

1.57

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

15.4%

Away win

Most likely

0 – 2

13.6%

Away win

1 – 1

10.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.68

Alverca xG

Total xG

2.44

1.77

FC Porto xG

14%
23%
64%
AlvercaDrawFC Porto

7.29

14%

Home win

4.40

23%

Draw

1.57

64%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.45

59%

BTTS No

1.69

Clean Sheet

17%

Alverca

5.85

51%

FC Porto

1.97

Win to Nil

2%

Alverca

42.69

32%

FC Porto

3.09

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.7 15.4 13.6 8.0 3.5 1.2
1 5.9 10.4 9.2 5.4 2.4 0.8
2 2.0 3.5 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3
3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
5

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.676
λ Away (xG) 1.767
Total xG 2.443
League avg home goals 1.355
League avg away goals 1.243
Alverca attack strength 0.793
Alverca defence strength 1.100
FC Porto attack strength 1.293
FC Porto defence strength 0.629
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 14 / 48