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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Alverca defy the odds to beat Arouca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Arouca 2-1 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.27 xG and Arouca 1.28 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Arouca attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 36% | Draw 27% | Arouca 37%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Alverca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 53%, Arouca 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 1.17 PPG, Arouca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights