🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights