Zaglebie Lubin 0-4 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Warta Poznań are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 0 for Warta Poznań and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 48% versus Warta Poznań 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Warta Poznań 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.07 xG and Warta Poznań 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.967 / defence 1.317 | Warta Poznań attack 0.694 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.019. Data: 25 Zaglebie Lubin games / 25 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 37% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 30%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Warta Poznań 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Warta Poznań (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 70% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 37% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.07 / Warta Poznań 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.967 / def 1.317 | Warta Poznań attack 0.694 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Warta Poznań xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 4 Warta Poznań.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 37% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.03
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.00
0.93
Warta Poznań xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.93 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 4D 13L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.12 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 5W 2D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.88 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Warta Poznań away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.42 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Warta Poznań won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 67%, Warta Poznań 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 25% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 25% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 25% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Warta Poznań run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-4 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.07 xG and Warta Poznań 0.93 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Warta Poznań outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.97 / defence 1.32 against Warta Poznań attack 0.69 / defence 1.04, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 37% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 30%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Warta Poznań 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.