Radomiak Radom 1-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Radomiak Radom welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.50 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Stal Mielec and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Stal Mielec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 52% versus Stal Mielec 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 40% | Stal Mielec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.34 xG and Stal Mielec 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.988 / defence 1.034 | Stal Mielec attack 0.830 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.047. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Radomiak Radom games / 25 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Stal Mielec 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 70% | Stal Mielec 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.34 / Stal Mielec 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.988 / def 1.034 | Stal Mielec attack 0.830 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stal Mielec xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 46% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.99x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.29
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.24
0.90
Stal Mielec xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.90 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 10W 10D 5L from 25 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 9L across 25 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.60 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 6W 5D 1L from 12 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 2W 5D 5L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.20 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 10D 5L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Stal Mielec away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.92 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 67%, Stal Mielec at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 42% (Stal Mielec).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 67% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 42% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, as Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.34 xG and Stal Mielec 0.90 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Stal Mielec attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 40%, Stal Mielec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.60 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.