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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin and Stal Mielec finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.65 xG and Stal Mielec 1.39 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Stal Mielec attack 0.96 / defence 1.37, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 33%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Stal Mielec 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights