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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Mon 28 Apr 2025

18:00

Venue

Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Zaglebie Lubin Win

44%

Zaglebie Lubin

2.30

24%

Draw

4.18

33%

Stal Mielec

3.08

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

1 – 0

7.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.65

Zaglebie Lubin xG

Total xG

3.04

1.39

Stal Mielec xG

44%
24%
33%
Zaglebie LubinDrawStal Mielec

2.30

44%

Home win

4.18

24%

Draw

3.08

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

61%

BTTS Yes

1.65

39%

BTTS No

2.54

Clean Sheet

25%

Zaglebie Lubin

4.02

19%

Stal Mielec

5.18

Win to Nil

11%

Zaglebie Lubin

9.24

6%

Stal Mielec

15.94

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8 6.7 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
1 7.9 11.0 7.6 3.5 1.2 0.3
2 6.5 9.0 6.3 2.9 1.0 0.3
3 3.6 5.0 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2
4 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.645
λ Away (xG) 1.392
Total xG 3.037
League avg home goals 1.500
League avg away goals 1.239
Zaglebie Lubin attack strength 0.798
Zaglebie Lubin defence strength 1.166
Stal Mielec attack strength 0.964
Stal Mielec defence strength 1.374
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 63