Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zaglebie Lubin (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zaglebie Lubin face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Radomiak Radom travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Zaglebie Lubin hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 3 for Radomiak Radom, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zaglebie Lubin and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Radomiak Radom 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Radomiak Radom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.77 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.825 / defence 0.845 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Zaglebie Lubin games / 44 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 55% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 15%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Radomiak Radom 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 55% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.77 / Radomiak Radom 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.825 / def 0.845 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Radomiak Radom xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 55% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 6W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.82) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
55%
1.82
30%
3.35
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.66
0.89
Radomiak Radom xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
38.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.89 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 44 games, going 18W 12D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (13W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.50 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 10W 6D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (2W 8D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.39 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.71 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 33%, Radomiak Radom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 62% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 38% of games; Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 62% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.