Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Radomiak Radom travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Zaglebie Lubin hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 3 for Radomiak Radom, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zaglebie Lubin and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Radomiak Radom 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.83 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.873 / defence 0.717 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Zaglebie Lubin games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 13%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.67 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.83 / Radomiak Radom 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.873 / def 0.717 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Radomiak Radom xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 60% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 13% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 6W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.87) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
60%
1.67
28%
3.64
13%
7.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.60
0.77
Radomiak Radom xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
7.88
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
48.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.77 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 11D 13L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.23 PPG from 39 outings (12W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.44 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (2W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Defensively: Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.74 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 37%, Radomiak Radom 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 63% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 37% of games; Radomiak Radom in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 68% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 63% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.