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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Radomiak Radom travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at KGHM Zaglebie Arena than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Radomiak Radom are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 47% versus Radomiak Radom 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Radomiak Radom 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.814 / defence 0.892 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.940 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Zaglebie Lubin games / 34 Radomiak Radom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 25%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 4.00. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Zaglebie Lubin dominate the H2H record, yet Radomiak Radom are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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