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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.69 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.25 / defence 1.08 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.79 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 52% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 24%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Piast Gliwice 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights