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Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.91 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.40 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 1.26 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 48%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.23 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights