🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nieciecza beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 xG and Nieciecza 0.66 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nieciecza outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.78 against Nieciecza attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 59% | Draw 26% | Nieciecza 15%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Nieciecza 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Nieciecza's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights