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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin and Motor Lublin finished level at 2-2 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 2.31 xG and Motor Lublin 1.47 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.31 / defence 1.22 against Motor Lublin attack 1.05 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Draw 20% | Motor Lublin 24%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 51%, Motor Lublin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights