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Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 2.15 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.44 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.30 / defence 1.14 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 54%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights