Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 41% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 34%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 45%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights