Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.15x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.88
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.80
1.32
Legia Warszawa xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.32 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.