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Dominant Zaglebie Lubin run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Lechia Gdansk 6-2 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.53 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.49 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 37%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Lechia Gdansk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.03 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights