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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Fri 15 Aug 2025

17:00

Venue

KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Zaglebie Lubin Win

39%

Zaglebie Lubin

2.58

24%

Draw

4.09

37%

Lechia Gdansk

2.71

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.5%

Home win

1 – 2

8.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.53

Zaglebie Lubin xG

Total xG

3.02

1.49

Lechia Gdansk xG

39%
24%
37%
Zaglebie LubinDrawLechia Gdansk

2.58

39%

Home win

4.09

24%

Draw

2.71

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

61%

BTTS Yes

1.65

39%

BTTS No

2.55

Clean Sheet

23%

Zaglebie Lubin

4.43

22%

Lechia Gdansk

4.62

Win to Nil

9%

Zaglebie Lubin

11.44

8%

Lechia Gdansk

12.53

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 7.3 5.4 2.7 1.0 0.3
1 7.5 11.1 8.3 4.1 1.5 0.5
2 5.7 8.5 6.3 3.1 1.2 0.3
3 2.9 4.3 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2
4 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.530
λ Away (xG) 1.488
Total xG 3.018
League avg home goals 1.615
League avg away goals 1.268
Zaglebie Lubin attack strength 0.873
Zaglebie Lubin defence strength 1.051
Lechia Gdansk attack strength 1.117
Lechia Gdansk defence strength 1.086
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 37 / 38