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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.53 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.12 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 40%, Lechia Gdansk 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights