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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.48 xG and Korona Kielce 1.13 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Korona Kielce attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 29%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Korona Kielce 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.03 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights