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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Fri 1 Aug 2025

17:00

Venue

KGHM Zaglebie Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Zaglebie Lubin Win

45%

Zaglebie Lubin

2.21

26%

Draw

3.87

29%

Korona Kielce

3.45

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.9%

Home win

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.48

Zaglebie Lubin xG

Total xG

2.61

1.13

Korona Kielce xG

45%
26%
29%
Zaglebie LubinDrawKorona Kielce

2.21

45%

Home win

3.87

26%

Draw

3.45

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.91

48%

BTTS No

2.10

Clean Sheet

32%

Zaglebie Lubin

3.10

23%

Korona Kielce

4.39

Win to Nil

15%

Zaglebie Lubin

6.86

7%

Korona Kielce

15.17

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.3 8.3 4.7 1.8 0.5 0.1
1 10.9 12.3 7.0 2.6 0.7 0.2
2 8.0 9.1 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 4.0 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.480
λ Away (xG) 1.131
Total xG 2.611
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.354
Zaglebie Lubin attack strength 0.941
Zaglebie Lubin defence strength 1.052
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.794
Korona Kielce defence strength 1.030
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 36 / 36